Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: Food Prices Basically Stabilized Vegetable Prices High Shock

People depend on food. Meat, eggs and dishes are closely related to people's table.

On April 17, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas held a press conference on the operation of the key agricultural products market in the first quarter. Tang Ke, Director of the Department of Market and Informatization of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, interpreted the pork, vegetable and grain prices that are of general concern to all.

He said that since this year, China's agricultural market has been running steadily on the whole, with prices showing a seasonal upward trend. Among them, grain prices are basically stable, vegetable prices are high and volatile, and pork prices have stopped falling and increased.

Reporters noted that Tangke pointed out that the vegetable planting area increased by 1.4% in 2019. After the weather continued to improve, a large number of individual varieties in some areas concentrated on the market, which may lead to a sharp fall in prices and unsalable risks.

Overall weakness of international soybean prices is expected

Soybean price situation has always attracted market attention.

China's soybean demand is about 110 million tons per year, while China's soybean output is about 16 million tons, so 90% of soybeans need to be imported. In order to ensure the effective supply of important agricultural products, Document No. 1 of this year put forward the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan, expanding the planting area through multiple ways.

Nevertheless, China's soybean import-oriented pattern will remain unchanged. Wu Hongyao, Secretary of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, said publicly: "We should further strengthen the opening up, including the opening up of agriculture, and make good use of the two markets and resources. The door for China to import soybeans is open."

Recently, the season for South American soybeans is coming again. What is the supply and price trend of the global soybean market this year? Can China's import demand be met?

In response, Tangke said that since March this year, Brazilian soybean began to buy a large number of. According to the forecast of various agencies, Brazilian soybean production is estimated to be 113 million tons to 115 million tons this year, and Brazilian soybean production is reduced by 6 million tons to 8 million tons compared with the previous year. The climate conditions in Argentina's main producing areas are generally good, and the total output is expected to reach more than 54 million tons, an increase of about 18 million tons over the previous year's recovery.

"In terms of total imports, Argentina ranks third and the United States second." According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of March 1, U.S. soybean stocks stood at 74 million tons, an increase of 28.9% over the same period last year. Against the background of abundant global soybean supply, China is expected to import more soybeans in the first half of this year. Influenced by the relaxed supply-demand relationship in the international market, it is expected that international soybean prices will remain weak in general and be conducive to China's entry. The export soybean market is running smoothly.

Vegetable prices are at a relatively reasonable level

Vegetables are indispensable at the common people's table. Throughout the first quarter, the "vegetable basket" was very strong. According to Tang Ke, vegetable prices in the first quarter showed a seasonal rise before the Spring Festival and a high fluctuation trend after the Spring Festival.

According to previous years, vegetable prices tend to be "the Spring Festival rises sharply and falls sharply after the festival". After the Spring Festival, the seasonal decline was large, with a decline of 3% to 18%. However, in March this year, vegetable prices did not fall significantly, at a high level in the same period of nearly 10 years, after the historical peak price in 2016, and the trend of seasonal decline slowed down significantly.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables in March was 4.84 yuan per kilogram, which was 0.4% lower than that of the previous three years, up 18% from that of the same period, and 7.3% higher than that of the same period in recent three years. What causes this? Does that mean there will be a shortage of vegetables this year?

According to Tangke's analysis, the main reasons for the high vegetable prices are the persistent rainy and light weather in the South since February, the overlapping of snow and rain in the middle and late of the whole country and the cold in the late spring, and the changeable weather in the earlier period, which led to the overall slowdown of vegetable production after the festival, the low yield, the adverse effects on vegetable harvesting, transportation and circulation, the poor variety and origin conversion, and the poor real-estate vegetable production. At the same time, the supply of vegetables has been tightened.

However, he also said that the average price of vegetables in the first quarter was 6.4% higher than the same period last year, but only 0.6% higher than the same period in the past three years, which is still at a relatively reasonable level.

Tang Ke pointed out that in the latter period, it is worth noting that since last year, the overall level of vegetable prices has been relatively high, and the enthusiasm of vegetable cultivation has generally increased. According to the regulation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the vegetable planting area increased by 1.4% in 2019. After the weather continues to improve, a large number of individual varieties in some areas are listed centrally, which may lead to a sharp fall in prices and unsalable risks.